Foreign Office Advised Against Military Action to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Recently released papers reveal that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military intervention to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".

Government Documents Reveal Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Policy of Isolation Considered Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was not working, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the documents were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military involvement would cause heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no nation in Africa would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The paper continues: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the ex-British leader.