Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.